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12/28/2011 

Title Town USA: Fantasy Year In Review Part 2

Part 2: The Draft
This year was the first time the league was conducting the draft with having 2 keepers already on our rosters.  Never having done a draft like this before I wasn't quite sure what to expect since 20 players were alrady off the board before we even began. (10 man league, 2 keepers each)  Its a traditional snake draft and I held the 3rd overall pick.  I'll highlight my pick each round and analyze each of the 16 rounds by pointing out steals, reaches and other insights.

Round 1

Mendenhall
Rivers
Calvin Johnson
Blount
Fitzgerald
Hakeem Nicks
Vincent Jackson
Mike Wallace
Reggie Wayne
Miles Austin

Didn't agree at all with the first two picks really.  At #1 Matt Forte would have been a better choice if you're dead set on going RB there but taking a top WR like Calvin or Fitz makes more sense, especially when that manager already had 2 keeper RB's.  Rivers wasn't a bad choice at the time, but he ended up not living up to his draft position.  The Blount pick is also questionable because there was more proven talent out there at RB and you don't really want to have your first pick be a whiff if the guy turns out to be a one year wonder.  The other picks are fine except maybe the Reggie Wayne choice.  At that time it was still unknown if Peyton Manning was going to play or not but I would have played it safer and went with a more stable situation and a younger player, like Miles Austin who went the very next pick.  As for my pick, Calvin ended up being worth it and then some.

Round 2

Matt Forte
Ahmad Bradshaw
Desean Jackson
Dwayne Bowe
Javid Best
Ryan Matthews
Wes Welker
Dez Bryant
Ben Rothlisburger
Santonio Holmes

I felt Welker went a bit early here.  Yea he ended up being the #2 guy this year so the value ends up being justified but I think he still would have been there at least a round or two later.  Not to mention this pick took literally 10 minutes of deliberation to decide.  The Big Ben and Holmes picks (both by the same manager due to a trade)  were also highly quesionable.  Big Ben because much better QB like Romo and Schaub were still on the board and Holmes for the very same reason, better players were available and both those guys could have been drafted 5 rounds later easily.  As for my pick, Bryant was the 11th WR taken and finished #20, though he did miss time due to injury so I'm happy with the selection.

Round 3

Mike Williams (TB)
Deangelo Williams
Felix Jones
Benjarvus Green-Ellis
Jeramichael Finley
Antonio Gates
Romo
Beanie Wells
Matt Schaub
Marques Colston

The first two picks here (both by the same manager due to a trade) were pretty bad.  Both players on teams not that aren't good with rookie QB's, new coaches and in Deangelo's case, other talent at the position, making for an uncertain time-share scenario.  Not in love with Green-Ellis in this spot either as a guy like Beanie Wells or or Marshawn Lynch would have been safer moe productive choices.  We also saw two TE go in this round, which I felt was too early to consider TE.  I like the rest of the choices though,  My choice of Felix Jones was a bit of a gamble since he was a newly annointed starter and how he would hold up over a full season was unknown.  He did get hurt and miss 4 weeks then rode the pine for another 4 weeks before reclaiming his job and turning in two solid games for fantasy playoffs so the gamble payed off.

Round 4

Jason Witten
Jeremy Maclin
Knowshown Moreno
Dallas Clarck
Shonne Green
Jon Stewart
Plax Burress
Percy Harvin
Stevie Johnson
Brandon Marshall

The Dallas Clark pick is a risk here because of the Peyton situation and he's had injury problems himself recently.  I also think better TE could have been selected here like a Vernon Davis or Owen Daniels.  The Jon Stewart pick is bad for the same reason the Deangelo Williams pick is bad, too much uncertainty.  The worst pick of the round is Burress though by a landslide.  Way too much risk this early in the draft.  I don't love Stevie or Brandon here because their teams are bad but they weren't horrible picks because they are talented guys.  I took Harvin here which was again a little risky.  The vikings arent the best team but his talent level warrents the selection.  He started slow but finished #14 making him a good value here in round 4.

Round 5

Mario Manningham
Ryan Grant
Anquan Boldin
Mark Ingram
Cedric Benson
AJ Green
Chad Ochocinco
Brandon Lloyd
Vernon Davis
Kenny Britt

The Ingram pick is another head scratcher because its a 4-way platoon in New Orleans and there's still better guys out there.  The AJ Green pick here ended up being a great selection as he had a fantastic year for a rookie WR.  The other bad pick is the Ochocinco choice, but him going to Tom Brady and the Pats might appear to be a good situation if you thought he still had some jucie left in the tank, which he didn't.  Had Kenny Britt not been lost for the year with an ACL tear and kept up his production all season that would have been the steal of the draft.  My Boldin pick here is just a solid choice of another starter on a good team.

Round 6

Josh Freeman
Marshawn Lynch
Owen Daniels
Eli Manning
Steelers D
Jimmy Graham
Pierre Garcon
Fred Jackson
Mercedes Lewis
Rob Gronkowski

Lynch is great value here in round 6 while making Josh Freeman your starting QB is a big gamble.  Way too early for a D/ST to be drafted, especially reaching on a unit that ended up finishing at #9.  Getting the top TE in Gronkowski here is a phenomonal job while the Garcon pick again leaves a lot to be desired.  I had 2 picks this round and nailed both of them.  Got the #2 TE in Graham and Fred Jackson was the #2 back up until his injury in week 11.   He still finished at #10, making him first round value drafted in round 6.

Round 7

Reggie Bush
Sidney Rice
Daniel Thomas
Roy Williams
Julio Jones
Willis Magahee
Lee Evans
Mike Tolbert
Austin Collie
Joe Addai

About the only good pick here is the Julio Jones choice.  Reggie Bush panned out eventually but that manager was already out of playoff contention by the time it did.  Magahee is good value here but he was the projected backup at draft time.  Roy Williams is another awful choice here as was the Collie and Lee Evans picks.  Me taking Thomas here was a pure flier.  I already had 3 RB so I gambled on a rookie since he was projected to start.  It wasn't a total bust but close enough.

Round 8

Matt Stafford
Brandon Jacobs
Santana Moss
Packers D
Robert Meachem
Steve Smith (CAR)
Rashad Jennings
Joe Flacco
Braylon Edwards
Eagles D

Stafford here turned out very well but was a risk given his injury history.  The Jennings pick is hilarious because the guy was already on IR when we held the draft.  Not a fan of the Edwards pick either since his better days are long behind him.  The #5 WR in Smith is a steal here in round 8, even if we all thought he was done after a miserable season the year before.  I took Flacco as Aaron Rodgers bye week fill in/insurance here so nothing further to add.

Round 9

Mike Thomas
Tim Hightower
Jets D
Matt Ryan
Darren Sproles
Sam Bradford
Thomas Jones
Bears D
Ravens D
Danny Amendola


Mike Thomas is a waste, especially when a guy like Jordy Nelson goes 2 rounds later.  The Amendola pick is high risk but high reward which ended in disaster when he got hurt.  The 2 QB selections were backups.  RB's by this point are pretty slim pickings so its no shock to see some recognizable names go, even if they're backups or not good.  Can't arugue with the Bears or Ravens D going here either.  Traditionally I wait another few rounds on my D but I took the Jets here because I've never really had a top 5 D on a team and I felt I could wait another round to start getting some WR depth.  Plus I felt a run on D happening since some were already off the board and I wanted to be at the top of the run, not the bottom.

Round 10

Pats D
Danny Woodhead
Jerome Harrison
James Starks
Heinz Ward
Saints D
Javon Ringer
CJ Spiller
Mike Sims Walker
Montario Hardesty

I'm glad someone took Woodhead and Harrison off the board and wasted a couple picks. Ringer was taken because that person was trying to screw me over by drafting my stud's backup, aka handcuff.  The Sims Walker pick is also a bad one here.  Can't fault the Hardesty pick as it was a Peyton Hillis handcuff.  I took Spiller here since I had taken Fred Jackson 2 rounds earlier and you never know with the Bills.  Ended up being a great move as Freddy got hurt and Spiller essentially won me the champhionship.  Meanwhile, I traded away CJ and Ringer got hurt anyways.

Round 11

Mark Sanchez
Falcons D
Lance Moore
Jordy Nelson
Johnny Knox
Nate Kaeding
Chargers D
Aaron Hernandez
Jay Cutler
Ben Tate

The Sanchez pick is bad considering he's your back up for Big Ben, not a good pair of QB to roll with for a season when QB is the most important position on the roster.  The Nelson pick here is excellent as he ends up being the #4 WR and is an absolute steal in round 11.  Classic example of why to never take a K before the last round as Kaeding ended up on IR for the year.  Hernandez is a solid back up for Owen Daniels as is Cutler a good back up.  Tate is a necessary Arian Foster handcuff..  In hindsight I should have taken Nelson over Moore but my plan was to get Nelson the next round, I just got beat to the punch.  Both players are similiar; highly talented guys on good teams with all world QB's.  Nelson just had a way better year than Moore.

Round 12

Randy Moss
Ricky Williams
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Kellen Winslow
Ryan Torain
Donald Browd
Deion Branch
LT
Bernard Berrian
Andre Roberts

I understand taking a gamble on a retired guy who may come back, but you do that in round 15 or 16, not 12.  The Berrian pick is a bit suspect but he was the defacto #2 for the Vikings at that time so its not too big a stretch even if he did get cut midseason.  We still don't know who Andre Roberts is.  In light of Jordy Nelson being snatched I went with LT here for a little more depth at RB, still not believing in Shonne Green's abilities.  Ended up trading him for a back up TE which saved me a waiver move I later used to add Kevin Smith.

Round 13

Delone Carter
Ronnie Brown
Malcolm Floyd
Kendall Hunter
Emmanual Sanders
TO
Greg Little
Nate Burleson
Michael Crabtree
Brent Celek

I was never a Ronnie Brown fan when he was a starter, much less a back up to Ray Rice.  Delone Carter is another odd choice given hes most likely 3rd on the Colts depth chart and they don't run the ball anyways.  TO gets drafted here, and while not retired like Moss, he is a free agent with no team and it ends up being a wasted pick.  The rest of the picks are ok.  Floyd is just more depth here but the guy tends to put up big numbers when he can actually stay healthy, which also ended up being the case this year.

Round 14

Lions D
Greg Olsen
Dallas D
Matt Cassel
Brandon Pettigrew
Kevin Kolb
Dustin Keller
Giants D
Anthony Dixon
Heath Miller

Cassel isnt a bad pick, but that manager already had 2 QB and theres never a reason to draft 3.  The Dixon pick is amusing because its handcuffing the handcuff.(Gore>Hunter>Dixon).  I wasn't going to draft a second D but decided to last minute since I had an extra pick pending in the final round.

Round 15

Stephen Gostowski
Chris Cooley
Mike Williams (SEA)
Tampa D
Tony Gonzalez
Vince Young
Pierre Thomas
Mason Crosby
Chiefs D
Niel Rackers

Considering Gonzalez was thought to be washed up and he ended up being the #3 TE this is a dynamite pick here.  Drafting a 3rd QB thats a backup is usually a terrible idea but since VY backs up Vick and Vick gets hurt a lot its actually not a terrible move.  Pierre Thomas has had success in the past but the Saints have 4 RB so its just a messy situation I would have avoided at all costs.  Williams busted out late last season so why not in round 15.  At this point you're just hoping to get lucky.

Round 16

Josh Bown
Rob Bironas
Roy Helu
Garret Hartley
Raiders D
Matt Bryant
Vinateri
Tony Moeaki
Jay Feeley
Vikings D

Compensatory Picks:  Janakowski and Billy Cundiff

Mostly K here, though Helu ended up being a nice find.  Hartley unfortunatly went on IR and the Vikings D ended up being bad.  I took a K and a back up TE here who also ended up on IR.


Recap
When all was said and done I was very happy with my roster.  Solid players on good teams, plenty of depth at RB and WR with very little risk and significant upside.  I really only thought that 3 or 4 guys had bad drafts with 2 others having done almost as well as me and the rest being fair.  It turned out I was mostly correct in that asssessment.