7/05/2012 

Caution: Side Effects Include...

Its hard to watch TV these days without seeing some commercial for a new wonder drug that is supposed to cure some horrible condition or disease that a seemingly random percentage of the population suffers from.  They usually have some stupid name that you can't remember 5 minutes after you hear it nor can you distinguish it from any of the other drugs in other commercials because almost everyone is identical. 

My favorite part is right at the end of the commercial when they list the side-effects of the drug.  Some of them are no big deal, things like dizziness or diarrhea, but its become more frequently common that the list of side-effects are plights worse than the actual disease they're trying to cure!

I had the TV on a couple weeks ago while eating breakfast and one of these came on.  When it got to the side-effect portion the list was about 10 items long including some awful things like blindness and motion sickness, but the last one they said was "may cause death."  How the hell can you create a perscription drug that could potentially kill the user?  How in turn, can that be advertised on TV?  You can't show some one physically drinking an alcoholic beverage on a commercial but we can advertise a drug that flat out says taking this will most likely maim and possibly kill you.  Perhaps because they throw in the "always check with your doctor before taking" line that's how its acceptable, but to me something stinks.

4/29/2012 

The Curse

I'm not what you would call a superstitious man.  The extent of my belief in seemingly other-worldy phenomena or adherence to certain rituals was really limited to not crossing baseball bats together during a game or stepping on the chalk line that runs down the 3rd or 1st baselines on a ball diamond.
That being said, there exists a powerful force, or curse if you will, surrounding the NFL athlete who is chosen to grace the cover of EA Sports' Madden NFL Football video game.  There are numerous websites out there which list every player affected and go into great detail like this one.  To summarize:  any football player put on the cover either suffers a major injury that season, sees a drastic decline in their personal statistics or has some terrible fluky fate befall their team at a pivotal moment in a big game.

The site I linked to above did not update the fate of Peyton Hillis that year so allow me to educate you.   Hillis made the cover of Madden 2012 and his career hit a wall.  He battled a hamstring injury and started looking like a one-hit wonder. In an interview with ESPN, Hillis said,

“There’s a few things that happened this year that made me believe in curses. Ain’t no doubt about it.”

Starting with Hillis in 2012, EA has held fan voting to determine the Madden Cover boy.  This year's "winner" is Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson, or 'Megatron.'  Why do I mention this?  It just so happens that Megatron is one of the resident keepers on my fantasy football team.  He's coming off an amazing year in which he played all 16 games for just the second time in his career and posted 96 receptions for 1681 yards and 16 TD, all career highs.  He is arguably one of the top WR in the game today.  He happens to be thrilled that he made the cover.  Mike Vick was thrilled to and proceeded to break his leg that season.

At what point does something stop being coincidental and venture into that grey area of unexplainable phenomenon?  Like I said from the beginning, I don't believe in this sort of thing, but the history and evidence overwhelmingly point to the fact that its more than probable that some terrible fate awaits Megatron this season.  Do I keep him and hope that he becomes the one player who can (temporarily) put an end to this alleged curse?  Do I try to trade him before the season begins?  After all, he is a rare and exceptional talent.

A thought occurred to me the other day.  As a rule, curses exist until some one breaks them.  This requires a specific person or action.  I'm willing to count the first cover man's injury, RB Garrison Hearst, as coincidence.  The ultimate culprit for the continuation of the Madden Curse is Barry Sanders, who retired upon being put on the cover.  Only Barry Sanders has the power to break this curse.  He needs to un-retire and lead the Lions to a Superbowl victory.  Or perhaps Megatron himself can lead the lions to victory and end the curse himself.  Only time will tell.

3/21/2012 

Not everyone is an NFL analyst

I'm no expert when it comes to matters of the NFL. However, factoring in my involvement and research in regards to fantasy football/the NFL, I would say I know more than the average person when it comes to the topic.  With the craziness of the last 2 weeks of the NFL free agent period, everyone has been offering their two cents about all the trades, rumors and signings.  Some of these comments are thoughtful and intelligent, while others and downright stupid.  I'm primarily referring to the things I see and hear on the book.  Its even worse if you go on ESPN.com and scroll through the comments on a particular story or if you see what people who follow Adam Schefter on Twitter will post.  So lets examine five of the bigger stories so far this off season and analyze them from the perspective of some one who's not a total moron.

1.  The Bills sign Mario Williams.

Non-bills fans feel like we over-payed and are stupid and will still suck next year.  Bills fans think this is the best move ever and we're Superbowl bound.  The fact of the matter is this:  The Bills probably did over-pay, but not by much.  Williams is a dynamic, game-changing defensive talent who is still in his prime.  Guys like him don't normally hit free-agency ever, much less at his age.  Unfortunately, the Bills aren't perceived as an attractive destination to big name, high profile free agents so if we wanted to sign him we had to offer above and beyond anyone else.  It sucks but that's the way it is for now.  I won't say its the best move the Bills have ever made, but its still a hell of a move.  He will make the D a lot better (and everyone around him) and hopefully make Buffalo more attractive to other free agents(case in point, today's signing of DE Mark Anderson).  It takes care of a glaring need we had that now frees the Bills up to address other needs in the draft like OL, WR and CB.  I don't think we'll be going to the Superbowl this year, but the playoffs are now very much possible.  A franchise QB is still needed to make a Superbowl run.

2a.  The Peyton Manning Sweepstakes

The biggest story since March has been that of where Peyton Manning would end up.  After we learned he would in fact be cut by the Colts, the speculation raged on for the better part of 3 weeks as to which team he would eventually sign with.  After the dust settled and tours ended, he has wound up as a Denver Bronco.  I still don't get why he chose Denver over the other teams he met with.  For my money he should have went to San Fran; newly revamped WR core (Moss and Manningham to go with Crabtree and Vernon Davis), amazing D, solid to above average run game, good coach and favorable weather.  A team that had just gone 13-3 and made it to the NFC championship game.  The Titans and Cardinals also made some sense with both teams having top 3 talent guys at RB and WR respectively.  Instead he chose 8-8 Denver, a cold weather team who also has a good D, but no where near as good WR crew or running game.  I guess he just really likes John Elway.

2b.  What happens to Tim Tebow

Yea, more Tim Tebow talk it pains me to say.  After Peyton signed with Denver, effectively ending Tebow's reign as starting Denver QB, the peanut gallery sounded off about what should happen.  Some morons suggested that he should be the starter in Denver and Peyton should be the backup.  That might be the single dumbest idea I've ever heard.  Peyton has more QB talent in his socks than Tebow possesses in his whole body.  The next deliciously absurd thing I heard was that he should get traded to the Bills.  Again, terrible terrible idea.  Not that Fitz is Peyton Manning, but hes still better than Tebow.  Tebow is a gimmick and the Bills are actually correctly building themselves into contention the proper way.  Reports surfaced today he was being traded to the Jets.  Then the same reports claim the deal has stalled due to contractual language complications and he might now end up in Jacksonville.  The Jets trading for him makes even less sense than the notion of him going to Buffalo.  They just extended Sanchez and recently signed Drew Stanton to be the #2.  I guess they miss Brad Smith and his wild-cat package that much they feel they need Tebow, or its sneaky insurance in case of further Sanchez regression.  Jacksonville is more than a Tim Tebow away from being a good team so this is purely a publicity move for them since Tebow is from Jacksonville and they need the ticket sales boost.  And since the going rate for a QB who can't throw the ball is apparently a 5th round pick, good luck to both these teams or who ever else swoops in and nabs him.

3.  Brandon Marshall traded to the Bears.

I get this move, and then I don't get it.  At the time of the move, Miami was aggressively pursuing Peyton.  Trading away your best WR and offensive player isn't the way to lure in the biggest free agent ever.  I'm assuming they knew two things very early on.  That they weren't actually going to land Peyton, and that Marshall was going to be disciplined by the league.  If they did know these things then I get the move.  You dump the headache (this altercation is not his first trouble with the law) and get back almost what you gave up to get him. (they get two 3rd rounders, they gave up two 2nd rounders)  The Bears are happy because they finally get a #1 WR for Cutler and with the defensive leaders and coach of the Bears, I would venture to say Marshall behaves from now on.

4. Bountygate

Today, the NFL announced the punishments it would levy to the Saints/Greg Williams for their roles in the bounty program. Coach Sean Payton is suspended w/o pay($7 million) for the whole season, Williams, now with the Rams, is suspended indefinitely, Saints GM and Assistant head coach suspended for 8 games and the team was fined 500k and loses their 2nd round draft picks this year and next year.  Speculation is that the reason the punishments were so severe is that the Saints attempted to cover-up and with hold information about the program.  The loss of Payton will hurt the Saints more than you think, as he was the primary play caller for their record setting offense.  Add to that the uncertainty of Drew Brees' contract situation and you have the makings of another hurricane in New Orleans.

5a. Redskins trade with the Rams to move up to #2

Once thought to be potential players for Peyton Manning, the Skins made an early move with the Rams to trade up in the draft for a crack at whichever top QB prospect the Colts don't take, be it Luck or RG3.  They gave up a ton to go from pick 6 to pick 2, a second rounder this year as well as their first rounders for the next 2 years.  They better hope whichever QB they draft pans out.  To make things easier for the rookie, they at least went out and got him some new toys to throw to, even if they over-payed for them, signing free agents Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan.  At least they weren't Jacksonville-signing-Laurant-Robinson-to-a-huge-contract-when-you-could-have-claimed-him-off-waivers-for-pennies stupid.

5b.  Tampa Bay signs everyone

This should probably be higher up on the list, but then again the list isn't necessarily in order of impact/importance.  It also all happened in the first few days of free agency and has kind of since been forgotten.  The bucs signed possibly the best available WR, G and CB on the market, reaching deals with Vinny Jackson, Carl Nicks and Eric Wright.  They also have the #5 pick so they'll get a stud their too.  They play in a tough division with the Saints, Panthers and Falcons so they still probably wont make the playoffs unless Josh Freeman wilds out.

2/14/2012 

Avengers

Get hard

1/15/2012 

The Curious Case of Timmothy Tebow

I'm willing to bet that you are as sick of hearing/seeing/reading about Tim Tebow as I am.  Ever since he took over as the starter for Denver its as if no other player in the NFL existed.  20 year old records were being shattered left and right, perfection was being chased, but media coverage was pinned almost solely on 2nd year QB who had managed to string a few dramatic wins together.

My hope is that now that Denver has been eliminated from the playoffs, that the media will now move on and we wont have to hear much, if anything, about Tebow until next season.  And that's the way it should be when your team gets absolutely dismantled, out-coached, out-played and downright embarrassed on national prime time TV.

I see the debates on TV and even on "the book" as to whether Tebow is a good QB or a bad QB.  I'm here to show you beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is in fact, a horrible QB.  Let's take a look at his stat line for the season shall we.  Tebow completed 126 passes out of 271 attempts, for a miserable completion percentage of 46.5.  That was good for 34th among QB's.  You may also note that there are only 32 NFL teams and he placed 34th which means he actually is less accurate than a couple of back-ups.  His 1,729 yards was good for 32nd and his 6.8 yards per attempt puts him at 28th.  His 12 throwing TD slot him in at 27th.  The one bright spot in his passing statistics is that he only threw 6 interceptions, the 3rd fewest in the league.  The other half of the coin is Tebow as a runner. He had 122 attempts for 660 yards and 6 TD, a 5.4 yards per carry average, and to top it off he had 6 fumbles.

What these stats show is that Tebow is an above average runner (for a QB) but a below average passer.  Now here is where all the fan boys will start crying about how many games Tebow won and that stats don't aren't everything.  I will agree that stats aren't the only basis for judging a player but at a certain point they become impossible to ignore, especially at the QB position in the NFL.  Tebow took over in week 4, with Denver sitting at 1-2.  He led them to an 8-8 final record, meaning he went 7-6 as a starter.  Not spectacular by any means, especially when gentleman like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady won twice as many games on their own.  Tebow got all the praise and recognition for two reasons:  the games were dramatic, and he is an unorthodox player.  Denver won 3 OT games and a handful of games on last second field goals.   In fact, 7 of the 11 Tebow started games were decided by 7 points or less.  That kind of drama alone will earn a team media spotlight, especially when they win those games.  Add to that the fact that Tebow is not a conventional QB and you get the perfect media firestorm.  The QB is the figurehead for a franchise.  He's the one who takes the fall and the praise depending on the outcome, deservingly or undeservingly so.  If the QB is exceptional, you will hear about him often and in positive lights,  If he's bad you won't hear about him as much and it will usually be in a negative light.  If hes simply mediocre, you may not hear much about him at all. This is basically how sports media operates on a normal basis.

Now the fan boys are saying that some of the losses aren't Tebow's fault.   More often than not, if the QB has a bad day, his team isn't going to win consistently.  Sure there are exceptions and as we've seen so far in the playoffs, anything is possible on the football field.  Football is the pinnacle of a team sport. There's the coaching staffs who come up with the game plan for the week and then have to adapt on the fly to what the other team counters with.  You have defense and special teams which can also turn the tide of a game.  Despite all these things, winning a football game comes down to the QB executing the plan.  Can a QB play a great game and still lose, of course.  Drew Brees threw for 462 yards with 4 TD and 2 INT and lost.  Its hard to blame him for the loss since the Saints were winning when he stepped off the field.  Let's look at Tebow's two playoff games.

Against the Steelers, he went 10 of 21 (47.6%) for 316 yards and 2 TD.  He also added 50 yards rushing and 1 TD.  Despite the bad completion percentage, those are good stats.  In the end they barely escaped with a victory via a 80 yard OT TD pass.  (The ball was in the air only 17 of those 80 yards however).  He essentially had a nomal day outside of accruing more yardage than usual due to several big plays.  Tebow more than doubled his season average of yards per attempt this game, finishing at 15 yards per attempted compared with 6.8. This mainly reflects how the opposing defense played.  Denver did not attempt more passes than usual, nor did Tebow complete more than usual, they just got more big plays.

Now lets look at the tale of the tape in the loss to the Patriots.  9 of 26 (34.6%) for 136 yards, an average of 5.2 yards per attempt, 0 TD.  He had 5 rushes for 13 yards as well.  These stats are more in line with his season averages.  Good enough stats and just enough plays to beat 7 teams who didn't make the playoffs but not good enough to beat a future hall of famer.  Add to that only putting up 10 points and what you get is a 45-10 massacre.

"But Cam, its not Tebow's job to stop the Pats offense, thats the D's job.  Its not Tebow's fault they lost."  You're right guys, its not. However, it is Tebow's job to score more than 10 points especially considering he was facing the 31st ranked D in the NFL that was staring a WR in their secondary.  Sure maybe the pats out-coached the broncos, they certainly outplayed them.  Then again they have a real QB in Tom Brady, who made Denver's D look like a retarded pop-warner team.

In conclusion, Tim Tebow is most certainly not a good NFL QB.  He may be a leader, and charasmatic and all that stuff, but that alone will not win games; an accurate arm and intelligence acomplishes that.  Denver beat up on bad teams and won by the slimmest of margins repeatedly.  History has shown that that outcome is the exception, not the norm.  They do have a solid run game and a good D, which will keep them in almost every game, but unless Tebow can improve, they face more 45-10 drubbings at the hands of the leages premier teams.